War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics /
Jeffery A. Friedman.
- New York : Oxford University Press, 2019.
- x, 228 p. : ill. ; 24 cm.
Includes appendix and index.
Contents : Pathologies of probability assessment -- Subjective probability and international politics -- The value of precision in probability assessment -- Dispelling illusions of rigor -- The politics of uncertainty and blame -- Analysis and decision -- Placing probability front and center in foreign policy discourse.